If the new administration makes good on its tariff threats, there could be pain at the cheese counter. Importers will pay the duties, but they’ll likely try to recoup the expense. They may ask European cheesemakers for price breaks, or pass some of the cost to distributors, who then raise prices to retailers. Ideally, everyone along the supply chain absorbs some of the blow. “To be blunt, when stuff like this happens, you learn pretty fast who believes in partnership and who wants to pass it on to the consumer,” says Adam Moskowitz of Larkin, an important importer of specialty cheese.

The specialty cheese industry is resilient, says Moskowitz. It has weathered recession, Covid lockdowns and the Boeing Airbus dispute tariffs of 2019. “Through it all,” says Moskowitz, “the category of specialty cheese continued to grow.”

Even so, a 10 to 20 percent tariff on imports, which the incoming administration has threatened, won’t benefit cheese lovers, many of whom are already flinching as their favorites surpass $30 a pound. “I think consumers are more sensitive than they were in 2019,” says Tyler Hawkes, CEO of Forever Cheese, a major importer of Spanish and Italian cheeses. “You’re seeing smaller and smaller portions at retailers.”

Research conducted for Trace One, a software company, evaluated which U.S. food imports would be most affected by tariffs. Dairy is far down the list. Only about 10 percent of the dairy products consumed in the U.S. are imported, compared to 60 percent of the fruits and nuts we eat. Cheese was the top food import by dollar value in only one state—New Jersey—probably because a lot of imported cheese lands there. (In California—Guacamole Nation—it’s avocados.)

Conceivably, tariffs could benefit domestic producers by making their cheeses more competitive. But that outcome seems more likely for commodity cheeses, like supermarket Cheddar, where consumers are constantly price shopping. Would a 10 percent price increase persuade a Stilton fan to switch to Point Reyes Bay Blue? “I don’t think it’s enough to help American sales tremendously,” says Steve Grandjean of Gourmet Imports, a West Coast importer of fine cheese.

“We’re a little more insulated because we’re selling a premium product,” argues Grandjean. “The consumer is not as price sensitive. But a 10 percent tariff is not going to help, given all the other pressures, like fuel and shipping. Inflation has driven everything up.”

Gourmet Imports isn’t stockpiling product; it’s too costly and of course, with soft cheeses, not possible. Forever Cheese hasn’t taken this step either. “Even if we tried to order ten times as much Parmigiano as we normally would take, it’s not available in the age profile we want,” says Hawes.

Moskowitz says his company gained insights from the 2019 tariffs that could come in handy if Trump isn’t bluffing. During that trade war, spreading the tariff expense among the entire supply chain helped minimize what got passed on to consumers.

Grandjean is hopeful that the dollar’s current strength against the Euro, if it lasts, will mute the impact of any tariff. What will actually transpire is a guessing game now. Trump’s latest tariff targets are Mexico, Canada and China—none of them big exporters of specialty cheese. “The uncertainty is the worst part,” says Hawes. “It’s hard to react, not knowing if and, if so, how much.”